Trump Flees: Revisited
"Either this nation shall kill racism, or racism shall kill this nation." (S. Jonas, August, 2018)
"A vote for ABBH (Any Body But) Harris, is a vote for Trump"
It is getting close to .Times Up,. Trump
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D. J. Trump may be one of the shrewdest men in history. After all, I did label him as "History's Greatest Con Man." Given how many great con men there have been, that is not an easy stature to reach. But he is hardly one of the smartest men in history, a state of brains easily confirmed by the "Kamala-is-just-an-awful-person-by-any-measure-(that-I-might-come-up-with-e.g.-female-Black-South-Asian-Democrat)" campaign he is currently running against her. (And of course he is running HIS campaign despite the advice, pleas some say, to switch to "policy" that he is getting from so many campaign officials, FOX"newsers," and etc.) And then, either in the "not smart" or the "why did he say THAT," category comes his Musing-with-Musk about going to Venezuela (of all places --- he obviously looked up the no-extradition treaty list, which Venezuela is on) should he lose the election and then (unmentioned-by-him-at-the-time), fail in the attempt that he and minions are already planning to make, to overturn that result. And so, why would he do that (duh)? Because, as George Conway explains, "Trump [is] in Jail Panic Mode Over Kamala's Candidacy."
Along with many others, I found it absolutely astounding, for a variety of reasons, that Trump would make such a public statement (for whatever reason or reasons he had in mind). As it happened, at the end of December, 2022, I published a speculative column entitled simply Trump Flees[SJ1] . In light of his public statement on the matter --- in which he said that he is actually contemplating such a possibility --- with a bit of editing here and there, I am re-publishing that earlier column here.
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Throughout the course of his life, Donald J. Trump has been known as many things: Papa's Boy, poor student, draft-dodger, Ladies' Man, sexual predator, real estate magnet, casino magnet (then not), racist, Con Man (World's Greatest), Proud Papa (of certain of his children), President (and oh yes, plotter to overthrow U.S. Constitutional Democracy), champion sue-er, consummate liar, squirmer-out-of-situations-that-would-have-brought-just-about-anybody-else-down, and so on and so forth.
But now [at the end of 2022] Trump is in really serious legal difficulty. He has faced legal challenges before, most commonly in his various businesses. They have usually been related to mis-representation or other kinds of commercial cheating-not-rising-to-the-level-of-criminality (e.g., the "Trump University" case, in which settlement he admitted no wrong-doing and apparently got a $25 million tax deduction). He has managed to dodge (so far) a variety of potential rape/sexual misconduct cases. He has also managed to dodge a list that even as of Feb. 2022 amounted to 19 separate actions of one sort or another against him. BUT, those came primarily (although not entirely) in the form of suits of various kinds. One criminal action in that set, the one against Mr. Weisselberg, ended in the latter's conviction, with implications of guilty behavior on the part of the Trump organization, but not Trump himself. (Trump's response to the conviction could be characterized as "Weisselberg? Hardly knew him.")
The Daily Kos has estimated that [as of the end of 2022] Trump is actually facing fifty-five different criminal cases, including multiple obstruction-of-justice and criminal-solicitation-conspiracy potential actions. And then there is the E. Jean Carroll sexual assault case, which could conceivably bring along with it a criminal charge of rape. (One should also mention the findings of the Mueller Report: about 75 instances of possible Trump-Russia collusion plus 7-8 instances of obstruction of justice. But of course, almost singlehandedly, "Attorney General" Barr [actually Trump's in-house lawyer] made sure that nothing would come of it.) And apparently there is other "stuff" not-yet-public going on that may bring additional criminal charges.
But now [again, at the end of 2022] things are beginning to change significantly for Trump, in a direction that he has never had to follow before, with charges of a type that he has never had to deal with before. As is well-known, Trump faces four different kinds of Federal criminal actions arising out of the work of the House of Representatives "Jan. 6 Committee:" 1. Obstruction of an Official Proceeding; 2. Conspiracy to Defraud the United States; 3. Conspiracy to Make a False Statement; 4. Insurrection.
Then there are: the "Georgia Case," based to begin with on the clear, recorded, instance of his soliciting fraudulent behavior from the Secretary of State; the "Mar-a-Lago Case," involving the theft of Federal government property by a private citizen, including the theft of highly secret "intelligence-related" documents; and the potential for multiple charges of income tax evasion at both the Federal and New York State levels. (Many folks have guessed as to why Trump did not want his tax records released; as folks begin to go through them, we are beginning to know why he did not release them for sure, beginning with the enormous [claimed] losses in certain years [and for large claimed deductible cash charitable donations with little or no paperwork was provided to back them up] combined with the pitifully small amounts of tax paid.)
But right up front and widely discussed are the cases that have been referred to a DOJ Special Prosecutor that by themselves are a load for Trump. The Special Prosecutor, Jack Smith (who is taking time off from auditioning to be cast as the next James Bond) is responsible for the investigations of both "Jan. 6th" and the conspiracy that led to it, and the "Mar-a-Lago" documents theft. The cases related to Jan. 6 are of course politically-loaded, in that, for example, about 140 Republican members of the House have lined up behind the "Election was stolen" movement. But as for the "Mar-a-Lago theft," it is harder to defend against without using the total law-defying fiction that somehow the documents, including top-top-top secret ones belonged to Trump. [[That is, of course, by the luck-of-the-draw, you happen to get a very-late-in-your-term judicial appointee who manages to figure out a technicality (perhaps guided by a little help from her friends) on which she can throw the case out.] Then add income evasion, to be handled by the IRS (to say nothing of "Georgia"). As Congressman Jamie Raskin has said, Trump could end up spending the rest of his days in prison.
That is a BIG "Could." But it is a definite possibility. And so, I am projecting here [again at the end of 2022] (and yes, this is purely speculative; I have seen no evidence to support the speculation) that if Trump were to become convinced that none of his Seven Magic Tricks would work this time around, that not being a risk-taker with his own money (although he has taken plenty of risks with other people's money), he would choose to leave the country while he could still get out with a significant chunk of it (although no one knows at this point exactly how big a chunk that would be). The most important point here about what would be going on in his head is that, like any criminal, from common to mob boss, he knows that he is guilty of one or more of the crimes listed above. And being a man of no courage, he would not be sticking around to face the music [emphasis added].
Where, then, would/could he go? The nation would have to have several very important attributes. First, it would have to be one that would accept a criminally-charged-fleeing-ex-President-of-the-United-States. Second, it would have to be one that has no extradition treaty with the U.S. (In Appendix II you will find a short list of them, with pro's and cons for Trump of each.) Third, it would have to be a place that could afford Trump the life-style/surroundings to which he is accustomed (assuming that he would be able to get enough money out of the U.S. to create such a surrounding). Fourth, it might have to be one which, given the first three (which are the most important for him) might allow him to set up a government-in-exile. Is this the stuff of fiction? Well for now, yes. But given Trump, definitely NOT a brave or courageous person, hey you never know. And whaddaya know, here is speculating on the possibility right out in the open. Phew!
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Appendix I List of (some of the) countries with no extradition treaties with the U.S.
1.The Maldives (in the Indian Ocean, pleasant climate, but very isolated, and could very well eventually sink into the sea as a result of Trumpist anti-climate-control policies);
2. Bosnia and Herzegovina (part of the former Yugoslavia, not too far from Melania's home country, Slovenia [there probably are good train connections]);
3.Cambodia (not likely for obvious reasons);
4. Morocco (some very luxurious spots, on the Atlantic Ocean);
5. Indonesia (has pro's and con's politically and geographically, does have many beautiful spots for a villa);
6. Nepal (very isolated);
7. Laos (not likely for obvious reasons);
8. Vatican City (besides the obvious reasons, there would be no room for a villa);
9. Bhutan (you want truly isolated, this is where you go, however, it's a country that does not measure gross national product, but rather gross national happiness);
10. Russia (which however, hey-you-never-know, might someday turn around and offer him back in a fugitive-swap);
11. Switzerland (ho, ho ho);
12. Iceland (same);
13. Nicaragua (politically unstable, but it does have some very nice coastlines on both sides);
14. Bolivia (much too high, and NO oceanside anywhere);
15. Ecuador (if you are thinking about Venezuela, why not Ecuador, which also has some very nice ocean frontage);
16. China (no comment); and finally,
17. Qatar, which only 3 years ago settled its dispute with the other Gulf States and Saudi Arabia. Unlikely, however, that they would want to reopen that can of worms. But they do have a lot of rich people living there, so there must be some nice spots to live in.