Donald J. Trump - Gambling Man: Will he stay or will he go?

"Either this nation shall kill racism, or racism shall kill this nation." (S. Jonas, August, 2018)

Donald Trump and Doug Flutie at a press conference in the Trump Tower. The United States Football League, another institution he ruined.
(Image by Wikipedia (commons.wikimedia.org), Author: Gotfryd, Bernard, photographer)   Details   Source   DMCA

On a number of occasions over the past several years I have written on what I have called "Trump's Six [now seven] Magic Tricks." They are:

1. He has always had one or more protectors and enablers, either personal, or financial or both.

2. For decades he has had a standard operating procedure when he faces an adversary of any kind. He learned it from Roy Cohn (who learned it from Joseph McCarthy): "Always attack; Never defend." A variation on this Trick is to utter a falsehood, and then just say it over and over and over again.

3. Also learned from Roy Cohn is the mantra: "when you run into a problem, just sue." You may not win, and it may cost you some money. But a) you might win and b) with the endlessness with which civil litigation can be drawn out in the U.S. legal system, that other side may just get worn out.

4. In the whole of his business life, Trump has never been responsible to anyone else, either above him (except for Dad, of course) or even alongside.

5. Trump has (for the most part happily) lived his life surrounded by enemies, whether in business, in his personal life, in his banking and financial life (except for a select few, like Deutsche Bank), certainly in politics, and not just at this time. In dealing with them his "Art of the Deal" has not been deal-making, but attempted opponent-crushing. Negotiation is just not his thing.

6. Trump is history's greatest con man (a subject to which I have also devoted a previous column). And, it should be noted that the Con Man or Woman by definition always knows that what they are selling is lie.

To which I recently added a seventh:

7. "Oh woe is me; everyone's against me, and it's so unfair[!]"

Over the course of his lifetime, they have worked, over and over again, from getting him out any number of sticky business ventures to getting him into the White House (with, of course, the help at the end of the 2016 Presidential campaign provided by FBI Director James Comey). Further, I, and others to be sure, have described Trump as "History's Greatest Con Man ." As for the term "gambler," it has been applied to him on numerous occasions. But a prime feature of Trump as a gambler is that he has most often gambled with other peoples' money, e.g., funds that he received from the use of his name on one product, edifice, or other venture (like an airline), or from friendly banks.

As is well-known, Trump is now facing the greatest challenge of his life --- and no, I don't mean regaining the Presidency. That is, of course, a major challenge, but the most serious one for him right now is figuring out how to stay-out-of-prison. Trump indicated that himself, with his very early declaration for the Republican 2024 Presidential nomination, figuring that that might help him to do the trick. Trump clearly knows that he is guilty of a variety of crimes in New York State and several different Federal jurisdictions.

Even somebody with as simplistic-an-understanding-of the-Constitution-and-its-amendments as dos Trump knows the various dates in them by which various actions taken in reference to a just-concluded Presidential election must be completed. Even a governmental-affairs-simpleton like him knows that if he loses 60-out-62 state-and-local court cases (more or less) on counts-of-votes, and (his) Supreme Court will not take up any further challenges, he has lost. But actually, whether he "knew" or "did not know" that he lost is beside the point, as is the "free speech" argument. Freedom of speech does not protect inciting to riot But nevertheless he and a variety of colleagues undertook an elaborate scheme of lies, as described so-far succinctly in the "Report of the Jan. 6 Committee" and the Indictment put together by Special Counsel Jack Smith, in an attempt to, using (very) legal language and maneuvering to do what he is charging his opponent with: stealing the election (see Magic Tricks 2, 3, 6, and 7, above).

Of course, it should be pointed out, after all of this, that Trump also has a major substantive reason for wanting to be re-elected. That is, whether the remarkably well-and-openly published plan by Trump and such organizations as the Heritage Foundation to impose a form of fascism on the United States, were to be imlpemented. I should note that unlike some other users of the term, I define it very carefully:

"There is a single, all-powerful executive branch of government, in service of a capitalist ruling class that controls, for the most part, the functions of production, distribution, finance, and exchange. There is no separation of the principal governmental powers: executive, legislative, and judicial. There are no independent media. There is a single national ideology, based on some combination of racism, misogyny, religious bigotry and authoritarianism, homophobia, and xenophobia. There is a political party supporting the movement. There is a state propaganda machine using the big and little lie techniques. There may be a full-blown dictatorship, a charismatic leader, engagement in foreign wars, and the use of the mob/private armies to enforce governmental control." Steven Jonas, MD, MPH, Oct, 13, 2022, and Republo-fascism and Trump. If you would like to see how far back I had the then-oncoming Republo-fascists nailed (with the Democratic Party of the era enabling them), see my 1996 book (3rd version, 2013), referenced here.

Of course, I will be dealing further with the matters of Trump and Republo-fascism in more-than-one column in the future.

But back to the present, to one of the two interconnected projects Trump is focused on right now: staying-out-jail (and then prison). For this task he is of course using more than one of his Magic Tricks. 1. He doesn't have a single "protector" but he is using a revolving cast of attorneys changing by the day-week-month so I won't enumerate them. (Some, by playing that role, like "Rudy," seem to have gotten themselves into a good deal of legal trouble. But that's another matter.) E.g., this week (and perhaps even the next several), it's one John Lauro, who has a very interesting legal background; judge for yourself what type of lawyer he is. Between those who have gotten into legal trouble themselves (see the list of unindicted [so far] co-conspirators), the large group of ordinarily "Republican" lawyers who would not touch this man with anything you can think of, and those who might but are worried about getting paid, the pool of "availables" is shrinking.

Trick 2. Of course, "always attack, never defend" is right the top of his ammunition list. (I could make a list of Trump-attacks as I write this on August 9, but by the time the column is published on August 10 new targets, personal and substantive, will have been added.)

Trick 3. When you run into a problem, just sue, or file any legal challenge you or your lawyers (often it's the former --- Trump is VERY experienced with the use of the Delay-Tactic) can think of, and, as everyone knows, delay, delay, delay. (When does he begin asking for extra bathroom breaks?)

4. Trump thinks and acts as if he is responsible to no-one else (Magic Trick 4). Play by the rules? Why those are for dummies!

Trick 5, let me remind you, is about being surrounded by enemies and reveling in the fact. At this time, no further comment is needed.

Which brings us to Trick 6: Trump is history's greatest con man. The con this time is, of course, that he won the election. And while other of his cons have been aimed at targets such as the leadership of the Republican Party (that e.g., he could be a really good President in the traditional (reactionary) Republican sense and lead the Party to a second Presidential term), this time it's clearly aimed at his "MAGA" (read racist) base (and any members of the general public that he can get to go along with it, at least for some period of time). Of course, Trick 7, "Oh woe is me," is woven right into all of this.

So, what is the "gamble" which I refer to in the title of this column? Well, it has several parts. First on the list, one would think, is whether he can actually win this time around. Second (in three parts) would be, as many observers have pointed out, that if he won (not a forgone conclusion) could he actually: a) immediately disrupt any criminal proceedings that had not been completed by Jan. 20, 2025, b) pardon himself and any of his co-conspirators who had been convicted by that time. Why then the early entry into the race (a matter speculated upon by many observers)? Well, it would seem to be that in addition to the above which might come into play if he won, Trump could invoke some made-up rule that, like occupants of the Oval Office, those running for it cannot be prosecuted (sort of a pro-Trump variation on the Hatch Act).

So, there are not just one, but two gambles that Trump is heavily involved with. Well, as I have said before, I don't think that Trump is going to wait around to see if he is going be convicted of one or more of the crimes with which he has (and will be) charged. Remember, there are: two at the Federal level: "Jan. 6" and "The Mar-a-Lago Documents" cases. There are two upcoming local cases: "Atlanta-attempt-to-rig-the-vote" and "New York City/Stormy Daniels." There is also the New York State Attorney General's civil fraud case as well at the second E. Jean Carroll defamation case. (And who knows what other cases might be lying around out there. After all, this man has made a career of civil litigation.)

BUT he IS a gambling man. But as I pointed out above, many, if not most, of his gambles have been with other people's money. This one is obviously with his own money, as well as for his physical freedom. And so, as I said before, since this gamble (over one or more convictions of a crime) has some very serious potential consequences, I think that this man, obviously not personally brave (despite the "famous shoot me on 5th Avenue" quote) will get out, of the country, with as much of his money as he can, and go elsewhere. (For the "elsewhere" possibilities, see the earlier column.)

So, he is going to think this through very carefully. And while he appears to have little of the knowledge that most college graduates have, of, say, history, political science, literature, and science, he is VERY smart when it comes to business maneuvering and practical politics. How else could a man with his background, with NO experience in government at any level, get to be President? Furthermore, what he values most are his life and life-style.

Let's repeat that: "what he values most are his life and life-style." There is a reasonable chance that he could be convicted of one or more of the crimes of which he stands accused, and end up with some kind of punishment (regardless of how much yelling and screaming, and perhaps violent acts might emanate from his ample supply of supporters). Prison? Unlikely (and not just because of the question of housing his Secret Service Detail in that case). My guess? Some form of home confinement with as an impenetrable as one could imagine electronic-communications barrier around (and above and below) the facility in which he would be housed.

One should note, in conclusion, that there will be an increasing number of physical/practical difficulties that would accompany such a departure. There his revolving 20-person Secret Service detail. There is the matter of his passport(s). (One wonders why he needs more than one, but, picky, picky.) There is the matter of, if he were to were to fly out, how would that be accomplished? There is the matter of to where he would fly? If it were at a time when by leaving the country, he would be violating the law, what would happen to the plane's crew (ground and air)? Would they all end up like Walt Nauta? Plus, plus, plus. It might take some combination of Jim Phelps and Ethan Hunt to work out this "Mission Impossible." But if it were accomplished, it would make a great movie.

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Postscript: Shortly after I posted this column, I came across a published article, New York Sun, 8-10-23, by AR Hoffman, that stated that Judge Beryll Hoffman of the D.C. District Circuit may (it's murky) have described Trump as a possible flight risk in court papers. I should think that there will be a follow-up on this one.